Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 15.667671 18.232809 21.034355 24.314425 28.042278 32.139932 36.977547
2024-10-06 12.419290 16.128814 20.576695 26.268933 33.322659 41.736246 52.487255
2024-10-13 9.761542 13.953930 19.402878 26.921832 36.932280 49.693659 67.066287
2024-10-20 7.840971 12.205027 18.293033 27.257957 39.942446 57.035841 81.551049
2024-10-27 6.437282 10.822446 17.339939 27.503403 42.664573 64.091361 96.209141
2024-11-03 5.800234 10.419119 17.664573 29.521033 48.001521 75.159959 117.357365
2024-11-10 5.140045 9.830909 17.571758 30.818451 52.315254 85.048722 137.581698
2024-11-17 4.554888 9.245387 17.363322 31.845600 56.236268 94.599828 158.000072
2024-11-24 3.858473 8.321268 16.426395 31.500834 57.840330 100.610228 173.343804
2024-12-01 3.177154 7.288019 15.126098 30.323268 57.861669 103.998053 184.674264
2024-12-08 2.649586 6.452841 14.051862 29.381227 58.129934 107.723907 196.723200
2024-12-15 2.333634 5.998537 13.634137 29.587828 60.423980 114.993580 215.146888
2024-12-22 2.016741 5.494154 13.070441 29.499777 62.277461 121.846600 233.752019
2024-12-29 1.884325 5.396347 13.345527 31.134048 67.579532 135.299616 264.998238
2025-01-05 1.678216 5.074329 13.084172 31.621905 70.690566 145.004990 290.251583
2025-01-12 1.485694 4.743719 12.749201 31.902492 73.400938 154.157360 315.128522
2025-01-19 1.316768 4.437103 12.418774 32.142431 76.034499 163.339623 340.665232
2025-01-26 1.278654 4.492053 12.969584 34.441420 83.201758 181.804582 384.922700
2025-02-02 1.199513 4.408681 13.161245 35.921982 88.735159 197.416463 424.652964
2025-02-09 1.112905 4.282666 13.223121 37.096049 93.694088 212.203582 463.666194
2025-02-16 0.971589 3.946445 12.672800 36.699945 95.092256 219.815584 488.950690
2025-02-23 0.815598 3.517382 11.791909 35.350030 94.158964 222.492270 504.454644
2025-03-02 0.691375 3.162715 11.056530 34.269743 93.729672 226.165174 522.170100